The UK is experiencing the ramifications of a complex geopolitical event that is increasing the cost of fuel due to war, driving up the cost and increasing the difficulty of obtaining resources and fuels. February 2026 started a war that involved the major oil-producing countries in the Middle East, and since then the global oil supply has been interrupted. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping route and a place that is home to millions of barrels of crude oil and liquefied natural gas, fuel prices have become a crisis for the British people. Although the British government has stated that there is no shortage of fuel, it leads to demand for spikes in fuel, which has stretched Tesco and Asda to their logistical limits.
Global Oil Supply and Geopolitical Strain
As the global energy market’s stability becomes compromised, the source of the current forecourt worries in the UK is the US-Israel-Iran conflict, which began on February 28, 2026. The conflict’s beginning severely impacted the stability of the global energy market, as almost 20% of the world’s oil and gas are impacted by the Strait of Hormuz. An effective blockade causes Brent Crude to be priced above 120 dollars a barrel. This is not just a problem of pricing but a serious problem of a logistical nature. There are refineries in Europe and the UK that are becoming unable to source certain types of crude oil that are needed to make diesel and jet fuel. For the first time, fuel supply experts are saying that the current crisis in energy supply is the worst disruption of supply in history, surpassing the 1970s oil crisis.
Rising Costs and Local Shortages
With the wholesale price increase of about 15% over a couple of weeks, the average price of unleaded petrol in the UK is now over 150p per litre. Things are worse for diesel drivers where prices are creeping towards 180p per litre—levels not seen in two years. Repeated price hikes have instigated a damaging cycle of consumer behavior. In fear of even further price hikes, drivers are rushing to fill up their cars, which are causing “temporary supply constraints.” While deliveries continue to be made, large retailers are noting the demands made on fuel pumps are greater than the rate they can refill. This purchasing behavior makes it appear as though a region is completely out of fuel, even though technically, the storage of that region may be adequate.
| Fuel Type | Feb 2026 Average (Pre-War) | March 2026 Average (Current) | Percentage Increase |
| Unleaded Petrol | 135.2p | 150.1p | ~11% |
| Diesel | 143.5p | 177.7p | ~24% |
| Brent Crude Oil | $70.00 / bbl | $111.00 / bbl | ~58% |
Government Response and Market Regulation
As unrest grows, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have implemented emergency measures to protect households. The government has made a 5p fuel duty cut to last until September, and has added a Simple “cheap fuel finder” tool to disallow retailers from price gouging. The Bank of England predicts inflation from energy sources will hit 3.5% in a few months, and as a result, they will keep the interest rates as they are. Retailers are accused of price gouging, while industry leads state that the margins of retailers are being sressed. The government urges calm, saying there is a global pricing issue and inventory issues as there is no need for panic buying.
Long-Term Energy Security and Resilience
The crisis has sparked a renewed and intense focus on Britain’s long-term energy strategy and its susceptibility to external shocks. Although the UK produces a considerable amount of its own gas from the North Sea, the pricing of its gas is still aligned to international benchmarks. Thus, UK domestic production gives little counter to international price spikes. Many experts claim the only option to break the cycle is to speed transition to renewable energy and domestic electrification. UK economy dependence on foreign conflicts is further reduced by the reliance on imported fossil fuels During this time, the government is considering the release of strategic oil reserve stocks, and is working with the G7 to see if Middle East navigation can be ‘opened’ again, but this is less likely to be resolved in the short term.
How to Stay Safe While Driving in The Current Crisis
Average UK driver must be less active and careful in their driving. The AA and RAC have adviced drivers to do less driving. On top of that, they have also advised drivers to do maintenance that can increase fuel efficiency. The public are being urged to not hoard fuel, as that is counterintuitive to other driving authorities. Because of Easter driving, it will put a lot of stress of pumping stations. How spoiled driving UK citizens will be will determine how the UK’s driving system will work, purely due to driving.
FAQs
Q1 Is petrol running out in the UK?
No, there is not a petrol shortage in the UK, although it may seem like there is due to high demand and a slow refill rate.
Q2 Why is there a price difference between diesel and petrol?
The Middle East directly affects the supply of crude oil and diesel, so there is a much stronger demand for diesel due to the war happening.
Q3 Where can I find the cheapest petrol?
To find the cheapest petrol, use a price comparison tool which retailers have to update as frequently as their pricing changes.
